Recent PostsRecently posted or modified blog posts in the category - Real Estate Newshttps://www.orianashea.com/blog/Copyright OrianaShea.com2024-03-05T10:02:54-07:00tag:orianashea.com,2012-09-20:33262Why There Won’t Be a Recession That Tanks the Housing Market<img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/2461/image/20240305-Why-There-Won-t-Be-a-Recession-That-Tanks-the-Housing-Market.jpg" width="750" height="410" />
There’s been a lot of recession talk over the past couple of years. And that may leave you worried we’re headed for a repeat of what we saw back in 2008. Here’s a look at the latest expert projections to show you why that isn’t going to happen.
According to Jacob Channel, Senior Economist at LendingTree, the economy’s pretty strong:
“At least right now, the fundamentals of the economy, despite some hiccups, are doing pretty good. While things are far from perfect, the economy is probably doing better than people want to give it credit for.”
That might be why a recent survey from the Wall Street Journal shows only 39% of economists think there’ll be a recession in the next year. That’s way down from 61% projecting a recession just one year ago (see graph below):
<a href="https://files.keepingcurrentmatters.com/KeepingCurrentMatters/content/images/20240304/20240305-More-Economists-Now-See-a-Soft-Landing.png" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><img src="https://files.keepingcurrentmatters.com/KeepingCurrentMatters/content/images/20240304/20240305-More-Economists-Now-See-a-Soft-Landing.png" alt="a graph of the economic growth of the economy" /></a>
Most experts believe there won’t be a recession in the next 12 months. One reason why is the current unemployment rate. Let’s compare where we are now with historical data from Macrotrends, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and Trading Economics. When we do, it’s clear the unemployment rate today is still very low (see graph below):
<a href="https://files.keepingcurrentmatters.com/KeepingCurrentMatters/content/images/20240304/20240305-Unemployment-Rate-Near-All-Time-Lows.png" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><img src="https://files.keepingcurrentmatters.com/KeepingCurrentMatters/content/images/20240304/20240305-Unemployment-Rate-Near-All-Time-Lows.png" alt="a graph of a graph showing the number of employment rate" /></a>
The orange bar shows the average unemployment rate since 1948 is about 5.7%. The red bar shows that right after the financial crisis in 2008, when the housing market crashed, the unemployment rate was up to 8.3%. Both of those numbers are much larger than the unemployment rate this January (shown in blue).
But will the unemployment rate go up? To answer that, look at the graph below. It uses data from that same Wall Street Journal survey to show what the experts are projecting for unemployment over the next three years compared to the long-term average (see graph below):
<a href="https://files.keepingcurrentmatters.com/KeepingCurrentMatters/content/images/20240304/20240305-Unemployement-Expected-to-stay-below-5-percent.png" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><img src="https://files.keepingcurrentmatters.com/KeepingCurrentMatters/content/images/20240304/20240305-Unemployement-Expected-to-stay-below-5-percent.png" alt="a graph of blue bars" /></a>
As you can see, economists don’t expect the unemployment rate to even come close to the long-term average over the next three years – much less the 8.3% we saw when the market last crashed.
Still, if these projections are correct, there will be people who lose their jobs next year. Anytime someone’s out of work, that’s a tough situation, not just for the individual, but also for their friends and loved ones. But the big question is: will enough people lose their jobs to create a flood of foreclosures that could crash the housing market?
Looking ahead, projections show the unemployment rate will likely stay below the 75-year average. That means you shouldn't expect a wave of foreclosures that would impact the housing market in a big way.
Bottom Line
Most experts now think we won't have a recession in the next year. They also don't expect a big jump in the unemployment rate. That means you don’t need to fear a flood of foreclosures that would cause the housing market to crash. Connect with <a href="https://www.orianashea.com/contact/">The Oriana Shea Group</a> today!2024-03-05T09:17:34-07:002024-03-05T10:02:54-07:00Oriana Sheatag:orianashea.com,2012-09-20:33204Why You Want an Agent’s Advice for Your Move<img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/2461/image/unnamed_copy.jpg" width="750" height="410" />
No matter how you slice it, buying or selling a home is a big decision. And when you’re going through any change in your life and you need some guidance, what do you do? You get advice from people who know what they’re talking about.
Moving is no exception. You need insights from the pros to help you feel confident in your decision. Freddie Mac explains it like this:
“As you set out to find the right home for your family, be sure to select experienced, trusted professionals who will help you make informed decisions and avoid pitfalls.”
And while perfect advice isn’t possible – not even from the experts, what you can get is the very best advice out there.
The Power of Expert Advice
For example, let’s say you need an attorney. You start off by finding an expert in the type of law required for your case. Once you do, they won’t immediately tell you how the case is going to end, or how the judge or jury will rule. But what a good attorney can do is walk you through the most effective strategies based on their experience and help you put a plan together. They’ll even use their knowledge to adjust that plan as new information becomes available.
The job of a real estate agent is similar. Just like you can’t find a lawyer to give you perfect advice, you won’t find a real estate professional who can either. That’s because it’s impossible to know everything that’s going to happen throughout your transaction. Their role is to give you the best advice they can.
To do that, an agent will draw on their experience, industry knowledge, and market data. They know the latest trends, the ins and outs of the homebuying and selling processes, and what’s worked for other people in the same situation as you.
With that expertise, a real estate advisor can anticipate what could happen next and work with you to put together a solid plan. Then, they’ll guide you through the process, helping you make decisions along the way. That’s the very definition of getting the best – not perfect – advice. And that’s the power of working with a real estate advisor.
Bottom Line
If you’re looking to buy or sell a home, you want an expert on your side to help you each step of the way. Connect with <a href="https://www.orianashea.com/contact/">The Oriana Shea Group</a> so you have advice you can count on!2024-02-29T15:44:30-07:002024-03-05T09:22:27-07:00Oriana Sheatag:orianashea.com,2012-09-20:32905What’s Really Happening with Mortgage Rates?<img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/2461/image/20240212-Whats-really-happening-with-mortgage-rates.jpg" width="750" height="410" />
Are you feeling a bit unsure about what’s really happening with mortgage rates? That might be because you’ve heard someone say they’re coming down. But then you read somewhere else that they’re up again. And that may leave you scratching your head and wondering what’s true.
The simplest answer is: that what you read or hear will vary based on the time frame they’re looking at. Here’s some information that can help clear up the confusion.
Mortgage Rates Are Volatile by Nature
<a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/en/2024/01/08/what-lower-mortgage-rates-mean-for-your-purchasing-power/?a=785954-95d2b60ce73e218ee4b4efe3cfa2add9" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Mortgage rates</a> don’t move in a straight line. There are too many factors at play for that to happen. Instead, rates bounce around because they’re impacted by things like economic conditions, decisions from the Federal Reserve, and so much more. That means they might be up one day and down the next depending on what’s going on in the economy and the world as a whole.
Take a look at the graph below. It uses <a href="https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates/30-year-fixed" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">data</a> from Mortgage News Daily to show the ebbs and flows in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate since last October:
<a href="https://files.keepingcurrentmatters.com/KeepingCurrentMatters/content/images/20240209/20240212-30-year-fixed-mortgage-rate.png" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><img src="https://files.keepingcurrentmatters.com/KeepingCurrentMatters/content/images/20240209/20240212-30-year-fixed-mortgage-rate.png" /></a>
If you look at the graph, you’ll see a lot of peaks and valleys – some bigger than others. And when you use data like this to explain what’s happening, the story can be different based on which two points in the graph you’re comparing.
For example, if you’re only looking at the beginning of this month through now, you may think mortgage rates are on the way back up. But, if you look at the latest data point and compare it to the peak in October, rates have trended down. So, what’s the right way to look at it?
The Big Picture
Mortgage rates are always going to bounce around. It’s just how they work. So, you shouldn’t focus too much on the small, daily changes. Instead, to really understand the overall trend, zoom out and look at the big picture.
When you look at the highest point (October) compared to where rates are now, you can see they’ve come down compared to last year. And if you’re looking to buy a home, this is big news. Don’t let the little blips distract you. The experts agree, overall, that the larger downward trend could continue this year.
Bottom Line
Connect with <a href="https://www.orianashea.com/contact/">The Oriana Shea Group</a> if you have any questions about what you’re reading or hearing about the housing market.2024-02-14T14:00:03-07:002024-02-22T16:23:20-07:00Oriana Sheatag:orianashea.com,2012-09-20:32607Will a Silver Tsunami Change the 2024 Housing Market?<img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/2461/image/20240129-Will-a-Silver-Tsunami-Change-the-2024-Housing-Market.jpg" width="750" height="410" />
Have you ever heard the term “Silver Tsunami” and wondered what it's all about? If so, that might be because there’s been lot of talk about it online recently. Let's dive into what it is and why it won't drastically impact the housing market.
What Does Silver Tsunami Mean?
A recent article from HousingWire calls it:
“. . . a colloquialism referring to aging Americans changing their housing arrangements to accommodate aging . . .”
The thought is that as baby boomers grow older, a significant number will start downsizing their homes. Considering how large that generation is, if these moves happened in a big wave, it would affect the housing market by causing a significant uptick in the number of larger homes for sale. That influx of homes coming onto the market would impact the balance of supply and demand and more.
The concept makes sense in theory, but will it happen? And if so, when?
Why It Won’t Have a Huge Impact on the Housing Market in 2024
Experts say, so far, a silver tsunami hasn’t happened – and it probably won't anytime soon. According to that same article from HousingWire:
“. . . the silver tsunami’s transformative potential for the U.S. housing market has not yet materialized in any meaningful way, and few expect it to anytime soon.”
Here’s just one reason why. Many baby boomers don’t want to move. Data from the AARP shows over half of the surveyed adults ages 65 and up plan to stay put and age in place in their current home rather than move (see chart below):
<a href="https://files.keepingcurrentmatters.com/KeepingCurrentMatters/content/images/20240125/20240129-60-percent-of-adults-aged-65-expect-to-stay-in-their-home-as-they-get-older.png" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><img src="https://files.keepingcurrentmatters.com/KeepingCurrentMatters/content/images/20240125/20240129-60-percent-of-adults-aged-65-expect-to-stay-in-their-home-as-they-get-older.png" /></a>
Clearly, not every baby boomer is planning to sell or move – and even those who do won’t do it all at once. Instead, it will be more gradual, happening slowly over time. As Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, says:
“Demographics are never a tsunami. The baby boomer generation is almost two decades of births. That means they're going to take about two decades to work their way through.”
Bottom Line
If you’re worried about a Silver Tsunami shaking up the housing market, don’t be. Any impact from baby boomers moving will be gradual over many years. Fleming sums it up best:
“Demographic trends, they don't tsunami. They trickle.”2024-01-30T11:20:52-07:002024-01-31T06:02:34-07:00Oriana Sheatag:orianashea.com,2012-09-20:323693 Keys To Hitting Your Homeownership Goals in 2024<img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/2461/image/20240101-3-Keys-To-Hitting-Your-Homeownership-Goals-in-2024.jpg" width="750" height="410" />
If buying or selling a home is your goal for 2024, it’s important to understand today’s housing market, know your why, and work with industry <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/en/2023/12/07/why-you-need-to-use-a-real-estate-agent-when-you-buy-a-home/?a=785954-95d2b60ce73e218ee4b4efe3cfa2add9" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">experts</a> to bring your homeownership vision for the new year into focus.
Over the last year, the <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/en/2023/11/29/why-the-economy-wont-tank-the-housing-market/?a=785954-95d2b60ce73e218ee4b4efe3cfa2add9" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">economy</a> had a big impact on the housing market, and likely on your wallet too. That’s why it’s critical to have a clear picture of not just the market today, but also on what you want out of it when you buy or sell a home. Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, explains:
“The key to making a good decision in this challenging housing market is to be laser focused on what you need now and in the years ahead, so that you can stay in your home long enough that buying is a sound financial decision.”
Here are a few things to think through as you define your goals for 2024.
1. Know Your Why
You’re dreaming about making a move for a reason – what is it? No matter what’s happening in the market, there are still many <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/en/2023/11/23/why-homeowners-are-thankful-they-own/?a=785954-95d2b60ce73e218ee4b4efe3cfa2add9" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">compelling reasons</a> to buy a home today. Your needs may have changed in a way your current house can’t address, or you could be ready to step into homeownership for the first time. Use your why and your motivation as a guidepost in partnership with an expert advisor to make sure your move gives you a lasting sense of accomplishment.
2. Figure Out What Your Next Home Needs To Look Like
You know you want to move, but how would you describe your dream home? The number of <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/en/2023/12/13/the-surprising-trend-in-the-number-of-homes-coming-onto-the-market/?a=785954-95d2b60ce73e218ee4b4efe3cfa2add9" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">homes for sale</a> has grown recently, and that could mean more options to choose from when you buy. But overall housing supply is still <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/en/2023/12/18/why-now-is-still-a-great-time-to-sell-your-house/?a=785954-95d2b60ce73e218ee4b4efe3cfa2add9" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">lower</a> than more normal years in the market, so you’ll have to work closely with a pro to find what you’re looking for. Just be sure to keep your budget in mind as you balance your wants and needs. The better you understand what’s essential and where you can be flexible, the easier it will be to find a home that’s right for you.
3. Determine if You’re Ready To Buy
Getting clear on your budget and available <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/en/2023/12/12/down-payment-assistance-programs-can-help-pave-the-way-to-homeownership/?a=785954-95d2b60ce73e218ee4b4efe3cfa2add9" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">savings</a> is essential before you get too far into the process. Partnering with a local agent and a lender early is the best way to make sure you’re in a good position to buy. This could include planning how much to save for a down payment, getting <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/en/2023/12/08/your-homebuying-adventure-infographic/?a=785954-95d2b60ce73e218ee4b4efe3cfa2add9" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">pre-approved</a> for a home loan, and assessing your current <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/en/2023/11/22/home-prices-still-growing-just-at-a-more-normal-pace/?a=785954-95d2b60ce73e218ee4b4efe3cfa2add9" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">home equity</a> if you’re selling your existing house.
A Professional Will Guide You Through Every Step of the Process
Buying or selling a home takes expertise to navigate. If that feels a bit overwhelming, that’s normal. Don’t let uncertainty hold you back from your goals this year. A trusted expert will help you bridge that gap and give you the facts and advice you need about today’s housing market.
Bottom Line
<a href="https://www.orianashea.com/contact/">Let’s connect</a> to plan how to make your homeownership dreams a reality in 2024.2024-01-17T12:32:21-07:002024-01-26T10:33:27-07:00Oriana Sheatag:orianashea.com,2012-09-20:32097The Surprising Trend in the Number of Homes Coming onto the Market<img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/2461/image/20231213-The-Surprising-Trend-in-the-Number-of-Homes-Coming-onto-the-Market.jpg" width="750" height="410" />
If you're thinking about <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/en/2023/11/16/people-are-still-moving-even-with-todays-affordability-challenges/?a=785954-95d2b60ce73e218ee4b4efe3cfa2add9" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">moving</a>, it's important to know what's happening in the <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/en/2023/12/04/experts-project-home-prices-will-rise-over-the-next-5-years/?a=785954-95d2b60ce73e218ee4b4efe3cfa2add9" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">housing market</a>. Here's an update on the supply of homes currently for sale. Whether you're <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/en/2023/12/08/your-homebuying-adventure-infographic/?a=785954-95d2b60ce73e218ee4b4efe3cfa2add9" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">buying</a> or <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/en/2023/12/05/when-you-sell-your-house-where-do-you-plan-to-go/?a=785954-95d2b60ce73e218ee4b4efe3cfa2add9" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">selling</a>, the number of homes in your area is something you should pay attention to.
In the housing market, there are regular patterns that happen every year, called <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/en/2023/11/22/home-prices-still-growing-just-at-a-more-normal-pace/?a=785954-95d2b60ce73e218ee4b4efe3cfa2add9" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">seasonality</a>. Spring is the peak homebuying season and also when the most homes are typically listed for sale (homes coming onto the market are known in the industry as new listings). In the second half of each year, the number of new listings typically decreases as the pace of sales slows down.
The graph below uses data from Realtor.com to provide a visual of this seasonality. It shows how this year (the black line) is breaking from the norm (see graph below):
<a href="https://files.keepingcurrentmatters.com/KeepingCurrentMatters/content/images/20231212/20231213-New-Listings-Stabilizing.png" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><img src="https://files.keepingcurrentmatters.com/KeepingCurrentMatters/content/images/20231212/20231213-New-Listings-Stabilizing.png" /></a>
Looking at this graph, three things become clear:
2017-2019 (the blue and gray lines) follow the same general pattern. These years were very typical in the housing market and their lines on the graph show normal, seasonal trends.
Starting in 2020, the data broke from the normal trend. The big drop down in 2020 (the orange line) signals when the pandemic hit and many sellers paused their plans to move. 2021 (the green line) and 2022 (the red line) follow the normal trend a bit more, but still are abnormal in their own ways.
This year (the black line) is truly unique. The steep drop off in new listings that usually occurs this time of year hasn’t happened. If 2023 followed the norm, the line representing this year would look more like the dotted black line. Instead, what’s happening is the number of new listings is stabilizing. And, there are even more <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/en/2023/11/21/are-there-actually-more-homes-for-sale-right-now/?a=785954-95d2b60ce73e218ee4b4efe3cfa2add9" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">new listings</a> coming to the market this year compared to the same time last year.
What Does This Mean for You?
For buyers, new listings stabilizing is a positive sign. It means you have a more steady stream of options coming onto the market and more choices for your next home than you would have at the same time last year. This opens up possibilities and allows you to explore a variety of homes that suit your needs.
For sellers, while new listings are breaking seasonal norms, inventory is still well below where it was before the pandemic. If you look again at the graph, you’ll see the black line for this year is still lower than normal, meaning inventory isn’t going up dramatically and prices aren’t heading for a crash. And with less competition from other sellers than you’d see in a more typical year, <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/en/2023/11/20/is-your-house-the-top-thing-on-a-buyers-wish-list-this-holiday-season/?a=785954-95d2b60ce73e218ee4b4efe3cfa2add9" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">your house</a> has a better chance to be in the spotlight and attract eager buyers.
Bottom Line
Whether you're on the hunt for your next home or thinking of selling, now might just be the perfect time to make your move. If you have questions or concerns about the availability of homes in our local area, <a href="https://www.orianashea.com/contact/">let’s connect</a>.2024-01-02T14:45:57-07:002024-01-26T00:49:24-07:00Oriana Sheatag:orianashea.com,2012-09-20:315102024 Housing Market Forecast<img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/2461/image/aerial-view-of-subdivision-in-irvine-california.jpg" width="2000" height="1333" />
<a href="https://files.keepingcurrentmatters.com/KeepingCurrentMatters/content/images/20231114/2024-Housing-Market-Forecast-MEM.png" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><img src="https://files.keepingcurrentmatters.com/KeepingCurrentMatters/content/images/20231114/2024-Housing-Market-Forecast-MEM.png" /></a>
Some Highlights
Thinking of <a href="https://www.mykcm.com/2023/11/07/homeowner-net-worth-has-skyrocketed/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">buying</a> or <a href="https://www.mykcm.com/2023/10/24/the-perks-of-selling-your-house-when-inventory-is-low/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">selling a house</a> and wondering what the new year holds for the housing market? <a href="https://www.fanniemae.com/media/49326/display" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Experts forecast</a> home <a href="https://www.mykcm.com/2023/11/02/dont-believe-everything-you-read-about-home-prices/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">prices</a> to end this year up 2.8% and to rise another 1.5% in 2024. And climbing <a href="https://www.mykcm.com/2023/10/23/why-home-prices-keep-going-up/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">prices</a> help make <a href="https://www.mykcm.com/2023/10/18/what-are-the-real-reasons-you-want-to-move-right-now/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">homeownership</a> a <a href="https://www.mykcm.com/2023/10/26/affordable-homeownership-strategies-for-gen-z/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">good investment</a>.
Plus, home sales are <a href="https://www.mba.org/docs/default-source/research-and-forecasts/forecasts/2023/mortgage-finance-forecast-oct-2023.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">projected to increase</a> in 2024. That’s good news because it means experts are forecasting more activity as people <a href="https://www.mykcm.com/2023/11/13/life-changing-events-that-move-the-housing-market/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">continue to move</a>.
If you're planning to buy or sell, it’s helpful to know what <a href="https://cdn.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/forecast-q4-2023-us-economic-outlook-10-26-2023.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">experts project</a> for the housing market. Connect with <a href="https://www.orianashea.com/contact/">The Oriana Shea Group</a> to talk about the latest forecasts and craft a plan together.
2023-11-21T12:28:07-07:002024-01-26T02:40:05-07:00Oriana Sheatag:orianashea.com,2012-09-20:31393Don’t Believe Everything You Read About Home Prices<img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/2461/image/house-home_L9VZ6SOGBB.jpg" width="960" height="640" />
According to the latest data from <a href="https://www.fanniemae.com/research-and-insights/surveys-indices/national-housing-survey/national-housing-survey-archive" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Fannie Mae</a>, 23% of Americans still think <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/en/2023/09/26/the-return-of-normal-seasonality-for-home-price-appreciation/?a=785954-95d2b60ce73e218ee4b4efe3cfa2add9" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">home prices</a> will go down over the next twelve months. But why do roughly 1 in 4 people feel that way?
It has a lot to do with all the negative talk about home prices over the past year. Since late 2022, the media has created a lot of fear about a <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/en/2023/09/27/why-todays-housing-inventory-shows-a-crash-isnt-on-the-horizon/?a=785954-95d2b60ce73e218ee4b4efe3cfa2add9" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">price crash</a> and those concerns are still lingering. You may be hearing people in your own life saying they’re worried about home prices or see on social media that some influencers are saying prices are going to come tumbling down.
If you’re someone who still thinks prices are going to fall, ask yourself this: Which is a more reliable place to get your information – clickbait headlines and social media or a trusted expert on the housing market?
The answer is simple. Listen to the professionals who specialize in residential real estate.
Here’s the latest data you can actually trust. Housing market experts acknowledge that nationally, prices did dip down slightly late last year, but that was short-lived. <a href="https://www.fanniemae.com/research-and-insights/surveys-indices/fannie-mae-home-price-index" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Data</a> shows prices have <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/en/2023/10/03/home-prices-are-not-falling/?a=785954-95d2b60ce73e218ee4b4efe3cfa2add9" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">already rebounded</a> this year after that slight decline in 2022 (see graph below):
<a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/en/content/images/20231030/20231102-Percent-Change-in-Home-Prices.png?a=785954-95d2b60ce73e218ee4b4efe3cfa2add9" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><img src="https://files.keepingcurrentmatters.com/content/images/20231030/20231102-Percent-Change-in-Home-Prices.png" /></a>
But it’s not just Fannie Mae that’s reporting this bounce back. Experts from across the industry are showing it in their data too. And that’s why so many forecasts now project <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/en/2023/09/12/what-experts-project-for-home-prices-over-the-next-5-years/?a=785954-95d2b60ce73e218ee4b4efe3cfa2add9" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">home prices</a> will net <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/en/2023/09/08/home-price-forecasts-revised-for-2023-infographic/?a=785954-95d2b60ce73e218ee4b4efe3cfa2add9" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">positive</a> this year – not negative. The graph below helps prove this point with the latest forecasts from each organization:
<a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/en/content/images/20231030/20231102-2023-Year-End-Home-Price-Forecasts.png?a=785954-95d2b60ce73e218ee4b4efe3cfa2add9" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><img src="https://files.keepingcurrentmatters.com/content/images/20231030/20231102-2023-Year-End-Home-Price-Forecasts.png" /></a>
What’s worth noting is that, just a few short weeks ago, the Fannie Mae <a href="https://www.fanniemae.com/research-and-insights/forecast" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">forecast</a> was for 3.9% appreciation in 2023. In the forecast that just came out, that projection was updated from 3.9% to 6.7% for the year. This increase goes to show just how confident experts are that home prices will net positive this year.
So, if you believe home prices are falling, it may be time to get your insights from the experts instead – and they’re saying prices aren’t falling, they’re climbing.
Bottom Line
There’s been a lot of misleading information about home prices over the past year. And that’s still having an impact on how people are feeling about the housing market today. But it’s best not to believe everything you hear or read.
If you want information you can trust, turn to the real estate experts. Their data shows home prices are on the way back up and will net positive for the year. If you have questions about what’s happening in our local area, Connect with <a href="https://www.orianashea.com/contact/">The Oriana Shea Group</a>.2023-11-16T09:15:42-07:002024-01-26T02:43:52-07:00Oriana Sheatag:orianashea.com,2012-09-20:30068Expert Home Price Forecasts Revised Up for 2023<img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/2461/image/304228-1600x1066-blue-house-feng-shui.jpg" width="1600" height="1066" />
Toward the end of last year, there were a number of headlines saying <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/en/2023/06/12/are-home-prices-going-up-or-down-that-depends/?a=785954-95d2b60ce73e218ee4b4efe3cfa2add9" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">home prices</a> were going to fall substantially in 2023. That led to a lot of fear and questions about whether there was going to be a repeat of the housing crash that happened back in 2008. But the headlines got it wrong.
While there was a slight home price correction after the sky-high price appreciation during the <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/en/2023/05/30/todays-real-estate-market-the-unicorns-have-galloped-off/?a=785954-95d2b60ce73e218ee4b4efe3cfa2add9" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">‘unicorn’ years</a>, nationally, <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/en/2023/06/05/oops-home-prices-didnt-crash-after-all/?a=785954-95d2b60ce73e218ee4b4efe3cfa2add9" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">home prices</a> didn’t come crashing down. If anything, <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/en/2023/08/11/home-prices-are-back-on-the-rise-infographic/?a=785954-95d2b60ce73e218ee4b4efe3cfa2add9" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">prices</a> were a lot more resilient than many people expected.
Let's take a look at some of the expert forecasts from late last year stacked against their most recent <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/en/2023/08/04/housing-market-forecast-for-the-rest-of-2023-infographic-1/?a=785954-95d2b60ce73e218ee4b4efe3cfa2add9" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">forecasts</a> to show that even the experts recognize they were overly pessimistic.
Expert Home Price Forecasts: Then and Now
This visual shows the <a href="https://www.zillow.com/research/data/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">2023</a> home price <a href="https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/forecasts-and-commentary/mortgage-finance-forecast-archives" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">forecasts</a> from seven <a href="https://www.fanniemae.com/research-and-insights/forecast/forecast-monthly-archive" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">organizations</a>. It provides the original 2023 forecasts (released in late <a href="https://ustoday.news/a-20-drop-in-house-prices-7-forecast-models-tend-to-crash-here-the-other-13-models-show-the-housing-market-in-2023/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">2022</a>) for what would happen to <a href="https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1671900591113609216" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">home prices</a> by the end of <a href="https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1671556169712672768" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">this year</a> and their most recently <a href="https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1686959362563092480" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">revised</a> 2023 <a href="https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1691799764466008217" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">forecasts</a> (see chart below):
<a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/en/content/images/20230831/20230905-2023-Year-end-home-price-forecasts.png?a=785954-95d2b60ce73e218ee4b4efe3cfa2add9" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><img src="https://files.keepingcurrentmatters.com/content/images/20230831/20230905-2023-Year-end-home-price-forecasts.png" /></a>As the red in the middle column shows, in all instances, their original forecast called for home prices to fall. But, if you look at the right column, you’ll see all experts have updated their projections for the year-end to show they expect prices to either be flat or have positive growth. That’s a significant change from the original negative numbers.
There are a number of reasons why <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/en/2023/07/17/home-prices-are-rebounding/?a=785954-95d2b60ce73e218ee4b4efe3cfa2add9" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">home prices</a> are so resilient to falling. As Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, <a href="https://blog.firstam.com/economics/the-reconomy-podcast-why-us-homeowners-have-a-big-advantage-in-a-rising-mortgage-rate-environment" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">says</a>:
“One thing is for sure, having long-term, fixed-rate debt in the U.S. protects homeowners from payment shock, acts as an inflation hedge - your primary household expense doesn't change when inflation rises - and is a reason why home prices in the U.S. are downside sticky.”
A Look Forward To Get Ahead of the Next Headlines
For home prices, you’re going to continue to see misleading media coverage in the months ahead. That’s because there’s <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/en/2023/07/25/dont-fall-for-the-next-shocking-headlines-about-home-prices/?a=785954-95d2b60ce73e218ee4b4efe3cfa2add9" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">seasonality</a> to home price appreciation and they’re going to misunderstand that. Here’s what you need to know to get ahead of the next round of negative headlines.
As activity in the housing market slows at the end of this year (as it typically does each year), home price growth will slow too. But, this doesn’t mean prices are falling – it’s just that they’re not increasing as quickly as they were when the market was in the peak homebuying season.
Basically, deceleration of appreciation is not the same thing as home prices depreciating.
Bottom Line
The headlines have an impact, even if they’re not true. While the media said home prices would fall significantly in their coverage at the end of last year, that didn’t happen. Connect with <a href="https://www.orianashea.com/contact/">The Oriana Shea Group</a> so you have a trusted resource to help you separate fact from fiction with reliable data.2023-09-06T10:20:23-07:002024-01-26T04:25:57-07:00Oriana Sheatag:orianashea.com,2012-09-20:29353Housing Market Forecast for the Rest of 2023<img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/2461/image/house-for-sale-iStock-1470005312.jpg" width="1920" height="1080" />
<a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/en/content/images/20230803/Housing-Market-Forecast-For-The-Rest-Of-2023-MEM.png?a=785954-95d2b60ce73e218ee4b4efe3cfa2add9" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><img src="https://files.keepingcurrentmatters.com/content/images/20230803/Housing-Market-Forecast-For-The-Rest-Of-2023-MEM.png" /></a>
Some Highlights
Want to know what experts say will happen in the rest of 2023? Home <a href="https://www.mykcm.com/2023/07/25/dont-fall-for-the-next-shocking-headlines-about-home-prices/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">prices</a> are already <a href="https://www.realtor.com/research/2023-national-housing-forecast-midyear-update/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">appreciating</a> again in many areas. The average of the expert forecasts shows positive <a href="https://www.mykcm.com/2023/07/17/home-prices-are-rebounding/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">price</a> growth.
Where <a href="https://www.mykcm.com/2023/07/19/explaining-todays-mortgage-rates/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">mortgage rates</a> go for the rest of the <a href="https://www.fanniemae.com/media/48386/display" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">year</a> will depend on inflation. Based on historical trends, <a href="https://www.mykcm.com/2023/07/18/homebuyers-are-getting-used-to-the-new-normal/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">rates</a> are likely to ease as <a href="https://www.mykcm.com/2023/06/23/homeownership-helps-protect-you-from-inflation-infographic/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">inflation</a> continues to cool.
Even though low <a href="https://www.mykcm.com/2023/07/14/low-housing-inventory-is-a-sweet-spot-for-sellers-infographic/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">inventory</a> continues to be a challenge, experts project 5 million homes will still <a href="https://www.mba.org/docs/default-source/research-and-forecasts/forecasts/mortgage-finance-forecast-jul-2023.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">sell</a> this year. That <a href="https://cdn.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/forecast-q3-2023-us-economic-outlook-07-27-2023.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">pace</a> should pick up if <a href="https://www.mykcm.com/2023/07/05/two-questions-to-ask-yourself-if-youre-considering-buying-a-home/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">rates</a> come down.
2023-08-10T09:32:52-07:002024-01-26T09:36:56-07:00Oriana Sheatag:orianashea.com,2012-09-20:28879Home Prices Are Rebounding<img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/2461/image/20230717-home-prices-are-rebounding.jpg" width="750" height="410" />
If you’re following the news today, you may feel a bit unsure about what’s happening with <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/en/2023/04/17/think-twice-before-waiting-for-lower-home-prices/?a=785954-95d2b60ce73e218ee4b4efe3cfa2add9" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">home prices</a> and fear whether or not the worst is yet to come. That’s because today’s headlines are painting an <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/en/2023/05/09/why-todays-housing-market-is-not-about-to-crash/?a=785954-95d2b60ce73e218ee4b4efe3cfa2add9" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">unnecessarily negative</a> picture. If we take a year-over-year view, home prices did <a href="https://spglobal.com/spdji/en/index-announcements/article/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-index-continued-gains-in-april/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">drop</a> some, but that’s because we’re comparing to a <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/en/2023/05/30/todays-real-estate-market-the-unicorns-have-galloped-off/?a=785954-95d2b60ce73e218ee4b4efe3cfa2add9" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">‘unicorn’ year</a> when prices peaked well beyond the norm.
To avoid an unfair comparison to that previous peak, we need to look at monthly data. And that tells a very different and much more positive story. While local home price trends still vary by market, here’s what the national data tells us.
The <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-us-national-home-price-nsa-index/#news-research" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">graphs</a> below use recent monthly <a href="https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Downloads/Pages/House-Price-Index.aspx" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">reports</a> from three <a href="https://www.corelogic.com/category/intelligence/reports/home-price-insights/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">sources</a> to show the worst home price declines are already behind us, and prices are appreciating nationally.
<a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/en/content/images/20230712/20230717-Percent-change-in-home-values.png?a=785954-95d2b60ce73e218ee4b4efe3cfa2add9" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><img src="https://files.keepingcurrentmatters.com/content/images/20230712/20230717-Percent-change-in-home-values.png" /></a>
Looking at this monthly view, we can see the past year in the housing market can be divided into two parts. In the first half of 2022, home prices were going up, and fast. However, starting in July, prices began to go down (shown in red in the graphs above). By around August or September, the trend started to stabilize. But, looking at the most recent data for early 2023, these graphs also show that prices are going up again.
The fact that all three reports show prices have been going up for three or more straight months is an encouraging sign for the housing market. The month-over-month data indicates a national shift is happening – home prices are rising again.
Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P Dow Jones Indices, <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/indexnews/announcements/20230627-1464869/1464869_cshomeprice-release-0627.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">says</a> this about home price trends:
“If I were trying to make a case that the decline in home prices that began in June 2022 had definitively ended in January 2023, April’s data would bolster my argument.”
Experts believe one of the reasons prices didn’t crash like some expected is because there aren’t enough available <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/en/2023/07/06/todays-housing-inventory-is-a-sweet-spot-for-sellers/?a=785954-95d2b60ce73e218ee4b4efe3cfa2add9" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">homes</a> for the number of people who want to buy them. Even with today’s <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/en/2023/06/13/your-needs-matter-more-than-todays-mortgage-rates/?a=785954-95d2b60ce73e218ee4b4efe3cfa2add9" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">mortgage rates</a>, there are more people looking to buy than there are homes available for sale.
Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, <a href="https://blog.firstam.com/economics/why-higher-mortgage-rates-dont-always-lead-to-declining-house-prices" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">explains</a> how more demand than supply keeps upward pressure on prices:
“History has shown that higher rates may take the steam out of rising prices, but it doesn’t cause them to collapse entirely. This is especially true in today’s housing market, where the demand for homes continues to outpace supply, keeping the pressure on house prices."
Doug Duncan, Senior VP and Chief Economist at Fannie Mae, <a href="https://www.fanniemae.com/newsroom/fannie-mae-news/mixed-data-complicates-economic-forecast-though-recession-remains-likely" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">states</a> home price growth is exceeding expectations thanks to that high demand:
“. . . housing prices continue to show stronger growth than what was previously expected . . . Housing’s performance is a testimony to the strength of demographic-related demand . . .”
Here’s How This Affects You
Buyers: If you've been holding off on <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/en/2023/07/05/two-questions-to-ask-yourself-if-youre-considering-buying-a-home/?a=785954-95d2b60ce73e218ee4b4efe3cfa2add9" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">buying</a> because you were worried the value of your home would go down, knowing home prices have bounced back should bring you some relief. It also gives you the opportunity to <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/en/2023/06/16/how-owning-a-home-grows-your-wealth-with-time-infographic/?a=785954-95d2b60ce73e218ee4b4efe3cfa2add9" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">own</a> something that usually becomes more <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/en/2023/06/27/why-homeownership-wins-in-the-long-run/?a=785954-95d2b60ce73e218ee4b4efe3cfa2add9" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">valuable</a> as time goes on.
Sellers: If you've been waiting to <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/en/2023/06/29/where-will-you-go-if-you-sell-newly-built-homes-might-be-the-answer/?a=785954-95d2b60ce73e218ee4b4efe3cfa2add9" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">sell</a> your house because you were concerned about how changing home prices would affect its value, it might be a good idea to team up with a <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/en/2023/06/30/key-reasons-to-use-a-real-estate-agent-when-you-sell-infographic/?a=785954-95d2b60ce73e218ee4b4efe3cfa2add9" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">real estate agent</a> to list your house. You don't have to wait any longer because the latest data suggests things are turning in your favor.
Bottom Line
If you delayed your moving plans because you were concerned about home prices dropping, the latest data reveals the worst is already over, and <a href="https://www.mykcm.com/2023/06/20/why-the-median-home-price-is-meaningless-in-todays-market/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">prices</a> are appreciating nationally. Get in touch with <a href="https://www.orianashea.com/contact/">The Oriana Shea Group</a> so you know what's happening with home prices in our area.2023-07-24T12:57:57-07:002024-01-26T10:03:04-07:00Oriana Sheatag:orianashea.com,2012-09-20:27341Today’s Real Estate Market: The ‘Unicorns’ Have Galloped Off
<img src="https://files.keepingcurrentmatters.com/content/images/20230529/20230530-todays-real-estate-market-the-unicorns-have-galloped-off.jpg" width="600" />
Comparing real estate metrics from one year to another can be challenging in a normal housing market. That’s due to possible variability in the market making the comparison less meaningful or accurate. Unpredictable events can have a significant impact on the circumstances and outcomes being compared.
Comparing this year’s numbers to the two ‘unicorn’ years we just experienced is almost worthless. By ‘unicorn,’ this is the less common <a href="https://www.thefreedictionary.com/unicorn" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">definition</a> of the word:
“Something that is greatly desired but difficult or impossible to find.”
The pandemic profoundly changed real estate over the last few years. The demand for a home of our own skyrocketed, and people needed a home office and big backyard.
Waves of first-time and second-home buyers entered the market.
Already low mortgage rates were driven to historic lows.
The forbearance plan all but eliminated foreclosures.
Home values reached appreciation levels never seen before.
It was a market that forever had been “greatly desired but difficult or impossible to find.” A ‘unicorn’ year.
Now, things are getting back to normal. The ‘unicorns’ have galloped off.
Comparing today’s market to those years makes no sense. Here are three examples:
Buyer Demand
If you look at the headlines, you’d think there aren’t any buyers out there. We still sell over 10,000 houses a day in the United States. Of course, buyer demand is down from the two ‘unicorn’ years. But, according to <a href="https://www.showingtime.com/showingtime-showing-index/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">ShowingTime</a>, if we compare it to normal years (2017-2019), we can see that buyer activity is still strong (see graph below):
<a href="https://files.keepingcurrentmatters.com/content/images/20230529/20230530-showing-traffic-above-pre-unicorn-years.png" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><img src="https://files.keepingcurrentmatters.com/content/images/20230529/20230530-showing-traffic-above-pre-unicorn-years.png" /></a>
Home Prices
We can’t compare today’s home price increases to the last couple of years. According to <a href="https://www.freddiemac.com/research/indices/house-price-index" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Freddie Mac</a>, 2020 and 2021 each had historic appreciation numbers. Here’s a graph also showing the more normal years (2017-2019):
<a href="https://files.keepingcurrentmatters.com/content/images/20230529/20230530-percent-of-annual-home-appreciation-returning-to-more-normal-pre-unicorn-years.png" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><img src="https://files.keepingcurrentmatters.com/content/images/20230529/20230530-percent-of-annual-home-appreciation-returning-to-more-normal-pre-unicorn-years.png" /></a>
We can see that we’re returning to more normal home value increases. There were several months of minimal depreciation in the second half of 2022. However, according to <a href="https://www.fanniemae.com/research-and-insights/surveys-indices/fannie-mae-home-price-index" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Fannie Mae</a>, the market has returned to more normal appreciation in the first quarter of this year.
Foreclosures
There have already been some startling headlines about the percentage increases in foreclosure filings. Of course, the percentages will be up. They are increases over historically low foreclosure rates. Here’s a graph with information from <a href="https://www.attomdata.com/news/category/market-trends/foreclosures/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">ATTOM</a>, a property data provider:
<a href="https://files.keepingcurrentmatters.com/content/images/20230529/20230530-1m-fewer-foreclosures-during-unicorn-years.png" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><img src="https://files.keepingcurrentmatters.com/content/images/20230529/20230530-1m-fewer-foreclosures-during-unicorn-years.png" /></a>
There will be <a href="https://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/en/2023/04/27/why-todays-foreclosure-numbers-are-nothing-like-2008/?a=785954-95d2b60ce73e218ee4b4efe3cfa2add9" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">an increase</a> over the numbers of the last three years now that the moratorium on foreclosures has ended. There are homeowners who lose their home to foreclosure every year, and it’s heartbreaking for those families. But, if we put the current numbers into perspective, we’ll realize that we’re actually going back to the normal filings from 2017-2019.
Bottom Line
There will be very unsettling headlines around the housing market this year. Most will come from inappropriate comparisons to the ‘unicorn’ years. Connect with <a href="https://www.orianashea.com/contact/">The Oriana Shea Group</a> so you have an expert on your side to help you keep everything in proper perspective.2023-06-07T08:25:56-07:002023-06-07T10:35:19-07:00Oriana Sheatag:orianashea.com,2012-09-20:26509Why Today's Foreclosure Numbers Are Nothing Like 2008
<img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/2461/image/pexels-mike-fox-5551004_2.png" width="1196" height="673" />
You’ve likely seen headlines about the number of foreclosures climbing in today’s housing market. That may leave you with a few questions, especially if you’re thinking about buying a house. Understanding what they really mean is mission-critical if you want to know the truth about what’s happening today.
According to a <a href="https://www.attomdata.com/news/market-trends/foreclosures/attom-q1-2023-u-s-foreclosure-market-report/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">recent report</a> from ATTOM, a property data provider, foreclosure filings are up 6% compared to the previous quarter and 22% since one year ago. As media headlines call attention to this increase, reporting on just the number could actually generate worry and may even make you think twice about buying a home for fear that prices could crash. The reality is, while increasing, the data shows a foreclosure crisis is not where the market is headed.
Let’s look at the latest information with context so we can see how this compares to previous years.
It Isn’t the Dramatic Increase Headlines Would Have You Believe
In recent years, the number of foreclosures has been down to record lows. That’s because, in 2020 and 2021, the forbearance program and other relief options for homeowners helped millions of homeowners stay in their homes, allowing them to get back on their feet during a very challenging period. And with home values rising at the same time, many homeowners who may have found themselves facing foreclosure under other circumstances were able to leverage their equity and <a href="https://www.mykcm.com/2023/04/11/the-big-advantage-if-you-sell-this-spring/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">sell their houses</a> rather than face foreclosure. Moving forward, equity will continue to be a factor that can help keep people from going into foreclosure.
As the government’s moratorium came to an end, there was an expected rise in foreclosures. But just because foreclosures are up doesn’t mean the housing market is in trouble. As Clare Trapasso, Executive News Editor at Realtor.com, <a href="https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/foreclosures-jump-is-another-wave-about-to-flood-the-housing-market/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">says</a>:
“There’s no reason to panic, at least not yet. Foreclosure filings began ticking up . . . after the federal foreclosure moratorium ended. The moratorium was enacted in the early days of COVID-19, when millions of Americans lost their jobs, to prevent a tsunami of homeowners losing their properties. So some of these proceedings would have taken place during the pandemic but got delayed due to the moratorium. This is a bit of a catch-up.”
Basically, there’s not a sudden flood of foreclosures coming. Instead, some of the increase is due to the delayed activity explained above while more is from economic conditions. As Rob Barber, CEO of ATTOM, <a href="https://www.attomdata.com/news/market-trends/foreclosures/attom-q1-2023-u-s-foreclosure-market-report/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">explains</a>:
“This unfortunate trend can be attributed to a variety of factors, such as rising unemployment rates, foreclosure filings making their way through the pipeline after two years of government intervention, and other ongoing economic challenges. However, with many homeowners still having significant home equity, that may help in keeping increased levels of foreclosure activity at bay.”
To further paint the picture of just how different the situation is now compared to the housing crash, take a look at the graph below. It shows foreclosure activity has been lower since the crash by looking at properties with a foreclosure filing going all the way back to 2005.
<a href="https://files.keepingcurrentmatters.com/content/images/20230426/20230427-US-foreclosure-activity-grows-but-still-below-pre-pandemic-levels.png" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><img src="https://files.keepingcurrentmatters.com/content/images/20230426/20230427-US-foreclosure-activity-grows-but-still-below-pre-pandemic-levels.png" /></a>
While foreclosures are climbing, it’s clear foreclosure activity now is nothing like it was during the housing crisis. In addition to all of the factors mentioned above, that’s also largely because buyers today are more qualified and less likely to default on their loans.
Today, foreclosures are far below the record-high number that was reported when the housing market crashed.
Bottom Line
Right now, putting the data into context is more important than ever. While the housing market is experiencing an expected rise in foreclosures, it’s nowhere near the crisis levels seen when the housing bubble burst, and that won’t lead to a crash in home prices.
2023-05-01T13:00:00-07:002023-05-01T00:00:05-07:00Oriana Sheatag:orianashea.com,2012-09-20:23732Why There Won’t Be a Flood of Foreclosures in 2023<img src="https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/U2r0XZjpOBkCyLDAkCVKXVrjydivXth4ERUWqkQhp6Q1NlMQclJRrTTg13SyS76zY63GH3CO9WLCkw3uRzQVlkTJjalC9p6NQhkHv8_NeMeY_kQMLGhcAEk4YakmQtZqrpqWYDGcd21yyoRxPJ0vegjtv0UAP2TKGJAIxQnrAdV_eJ5BH4LUz4YDyj5LmQ" width="857" height="467" />
With the rapid shift that’s happened in the housing market this past year, some people are raising concerns that we’re destined for a repeat of the crash we saw years ago happen again in 2023. But in truth, there are many key differences between what’s happening today and the bubble in the early 2000s.
One of the reasons this isn’t like the last time is the number of foreclosures in the market is much lower now. After the last housing crash, over nine million households lost their homes due to a foreclosure, short sale, or because they gave it back to the bank. This was, in large part, because of more relaxed lending standards where people could take out mortgages they ultimately couldn’t afford. Those lending practices led to a wave of distressed properties which made their way into the market and caused home values to plummet.
While you may have seen recent stories about the number of foreclosures rising today, context is important. During the pandemic, many homeowners were able to pause their mortgage payments using the forbearance program. The program gave homeowners facing difficulties extra time to get their finances in order and, in many cases, work out a plan with their lender.
With that program, many were concerned it would result in a wave of foreclosures coming to the market. That fear didn’t materialize. That means, while there are more foreclosures now compared to last year (when foreclosures were paused), the number is still well below what the housing market has seen in a more typical year, like 2017-2019. And most importantly, the number we’re seeing now is still far below the number we saw during the market crash of 2008. Don’t let a headline in the news mislead you.
Many homeowners today have enough equity to sell their homes instead of facing foreclosure. Due to rapidly rising home prices over the last two years, the average homeowner has gained record amounts of equity in their home. And if they’ve stayed in their homes even longer, they may have even more equity than they realize.
Bottom Line
If you see headlines about the increasing number of foreclosures today, remember context is important. While it’s true the number of foreclosures is higher now than it was last year, foreclosures are still well below pre-pandemic years. If you have questions, reach out to a real estate professional.
Call (562) 270-1775 Today or Contact Us <a href="https://www.orianashea.com/contact/">HERE</a>!
2023-01-02T08:45:00-07:002023-01-03T15:43:15-07:00Oriana Sheatag:orianashea.com,2012-09-20:235304 Home Security Tips To Consider Before The Holidays<img src="https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/VUZQ4QKnHu7rt0o3dgZ9xgZb_pm3wAwfY4pXDqwiguWkK0xMnKTsBNZlVn6ARsI0TlYeJgfzLRPoPb1h7YjarC0u8DrYodLudEtmWlaEmcjkQt84VhvXvjKIvkelus2KW3157jIyCDEtWPbIBW3ZFhSNZgLTXznlGlSPCpXwvHGGwpu2Id8F3hWhkIjA_w" width="885" height="505" />
During the holiday event season, it’s important to review your family’s home security plan. If your household does not have a security plan, now may be a good time to create one. Here are a 4 tips to keep you and your loved ones a few steps ahead.
Social Sense: When traveling away from home for more than a day, avoid letting the entire world know (via social media) that you’re away from your home on vacation. Fight the urge to post photos of your travels and wait until you’re back home. Homes have been broken into based on information thieves collected on social media.
Lighting: Do you remember the movie Home Alone? Kevin actually had some good ideas for making a home look occupied by using automatic lighting and other creative gadgets. Simple automatic timers that turn lamps and other lighting on in the home between normal activity hours can give the sense that the home is occupied.
Communicate With Your Neighbors: Let your neighbors know that you’ll be out of town and the duration of the time you plan to be away. Ask a neighbor to collect any newspapers or front door flyers from your property. This small chore will prevent the home from appearing unattended and give a stronger appearance that the property is occupied.
Consider A Security System: If you tend to keep cash and valuables stored in your home or if you travel frequently, you may want to consider installing a home security system. Nowadays, home security systems can be fairly inexpensive and quite effective. Most include web cameras that monitor the home and can be accessed via your smartphone. This is also a great way to monitor pets that are left home for a few hours while running errands.
At The Oriana Shea Group we’re here to answer any questions you might have, and to put you at ease when it comes to buying a new home or selling your current home. Call (562) 270-1775 Today or Contact Us <a href="https://www.orianashea.com/contact/">HERE</a>!
<br /><br /><br />2022-12-14T08:30:00-07:002022-12-14T11:35:07-07:00Oriana Sheatag:orianashea.com,2012-09-20:23035What Happens to the Housing Market when There’s a Recession?<img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/2461/image/0270_637976512086490828.jpg" width="1000" height="600" alt="What Happens to the Housing Market in Long Beach when There’s a Recession?" />
Since the 2008 housing bubble burst, the word recession strikes a stronger emotional chord than it ever did before. And while there’s some debate around whether we’re officially in a recession right now, the good news is experts say a recession today would likely be mild and the economy would rebound quickly. As the 2022 CEO Outlook from KPMG says:
“Global CEOs see a ‘mild and short’ recession, yet optimistic about the global economy over a 3-year horizon . . .
More than 8 out of 10 anticipate a recession over the next 12 months, with more than half expecting it to be mild and short.”
To add to that sentiment, housing is typically one of the first sectors to rebound during a slowdown. As Ali Wolf, Chief Economist at Zonda, explains:
“Housing is traditionally one of the first sectors to slow as the economy shifts but is also one of the first to rebound.”
Part of that rebound is tied to what has historically happened to mortgage rates during recessions. Here’s a look back at rates during previous economic slowdowns to help put your mind at ease.
Mortgage Rates Typically Fall During Recessions
Historical data helps paint the picture of how a recession could impact the cost of financing a home. Looking at recessions in this country going all the way back to 1980, the graph below shows each time the economy slowed down mortgage rates decreased.
Fortune explains mortgage rates typically fall during an economic slowdown:
“Over the past five recessions, mortgage rates have fallen an average of 1.8 percentage points from the peak seen during the recession to the trough. And in many cases, they continue to fall after the fact as it takes some time to turn things around even when the recession is technically over.”
While history doesn’t always repeat itself, we can learn from and find comfort in the trends of what’s happened in the past. If you’re thinking about buying or selling a home, you can make the best decision by working with a trusted real estate professional. That way you have expert advice on what a recession could mean for the housing market.
Bottom Line
History shows you don’t need to fear the word recession when it comes to the housing market. If you have questions about what’s happening today, work with a real estate professional so you have expert advice and insights you can trust.
Call (562) 270-1775 Today or Contact Us <a href="https://www.orianashea.com/contact/">HERE</a> to find that home today!
Source: Keeping Current Matters 2022-11-15T15:11:19-07:002022-11-15T15:17:09-07:00Oriana Sheatag:orianashea.com,2012-09-20:22906What’s Ahead for Home Prices?<img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/2461/image/Home_Loans.jpg" width="896" height="597" />
As the housing market cools in response to the dramatic rise in mortgage rates, home price appreciation is cooling as well. And if you’re following along with headlines in the media, you’re probably seeing a wide range of opinions calling for everything from falling home prices to ongoing appreciation. But what’s true? What’s most likely to happen moving forward?
While opinions differ, the most likely outcome is we’ll fall somewhere in the middle of slight appreciation and slight depreciation. Here’s a look at the latest expert projections so you have the best information possible today.
What the Experts Are Saying About Home Prices Next Year
The graph below shows the most up-to-date forecasts from five experts in the housing industry. These are the experts that have most recently updated their projections based on current market trends:
<img src="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/T33XcMPzBzzFoGmU-AS0KrQLBH3s6TlA47Ybuvxlfi0kHdKdM48bdF7WNgMuvKj9ZuKgVYKGVcV3diFxt9mlp9T-wgyUXbM8sV2kxMZJ6Tjmvm2cIBv1PyY1qgvz4iiRD2_JEBHVpTkuHTqs8iO3BVbZfxTwCti0-1EfdoGUIQRNwH1876XQeaN3b9t6zA" width="868" height="562" />
As the graph shows, the three blue bars represent experts calling for ongoing home price appreciation, just at a more moderate rate than recent years. The red bars on the graph are experts calling for home price depreciation.
While there isn’t a clear consensus, if you take the average (shown in green) of all five of these forecasts, the most likely outcome is, nationally, home price appreciation will be fairly flat next year.
What Does This Mean?
Basically, experts are divided on what’s ahead for 2023. Home prices will likely depreciate slightly in some markets and will continue to gain ground in others. It all depends on the conditions in your local market, like how overheated that market was in recent years, current inventory levels, buyer demand, and more.
The good news is home prices are expected to return to more normal levels of appreciation rather quickly. The latest forecast from Wells Fargo shows that, while they feel prices will fall in 2023, they think prices will recover and be net positive in 2024. That forecast calls for 3.1% appreciation in 2024, which is a number much more in line with the long-term average of 4% annual appreciation.
And the Home Price Expectation Survey (HPES) from Pulsenomics, a poll of over one hundred industry experts, also calls for ongoing appreciation of roughly 2.6 to 4% from 2024-2026. This goes to show, even if prices decline slightly next year, it’s not expected to be a lasting trend.
As Jason Lewris, Co-Founder and Chief Data Officer for Parcl, says:
“In the absence of trustworthy, up-to-date information, real estate decisions are increasingly being driven by fear, uncertainty, and doubt.”
Don’t let fear or uncertainty change your plans. If you’re unsure about where prices are headed or how to make sense of what’s going on in today’s housing market, reach out to a local real estate professional for the guidance you need each step of the way.
Bottom Line
The housing market is shifting, and it’s a confusing place right now. The best way to navigate that shift is to lean on a trusted real estate professional to help you make confident and informed decisions about what’s happening in your market.
Call (562) 270-1775 Today or Contact Us <a href="https://www.orianashea.com/contact/">HERE</a> to find that home today!
Source: Keeping Current Matters
<br /><br /><br />2022-11-08T09:30:00-07:002022-12-28T12:58:27-07:00Oriana Sheatag:orianashea.com,2012-09-20:18233Your Ultimate Home Maintenance Checklist for the SPRING Season<img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/2461/image/Spring_Cleaning.jpg" /><br />
Your Ultimate Home Maintenance Checklist for the SPRING Season
Being a homeowner has its advantages, we must say. Although it is a great responsibility it does in fact pay off big in the end. Just like your vehicle you drive, it is important to remember the necessary check ups to make sure it is driving smoothly. Continuing to check on your home both inside and out is one in the same.
These check ups are useful to prevent breakdowns of your home such as: checking your appliances, HVAC systems, plumbing, and electrical systems. In the long run these helpful tips will potentially save you time and money, along with keeping your home looking in the best shape.
During this Spring, remember to do the following and check off these items on your Home Maintenance List:
Inspect roofing for missing, loose, damaged shingles or leaks.
Change the A/C filter
Clean windows and door screens
Polish wood furniture, and dust light fixtures accordingly
Power wash windows and siding
Remove leaves and/or debri from gutters and downspouts
Replace batteries in smoke and carbon monoxide detectors
If possible, have professional inspect septic or plumbing system
Inspect sink, shower, and bath caulking for deterioration
Vacuum lint from dryer vent
If applicable, inspect chimney for any damage
Repair/ replace caulking and weather stripping around windows, doors, and mechanicals
If applicable, remove insulation from outdoor faucets and check sprinkler heads.
Have A/C serviced
Drain and flush water heater
Fertilize your lawn
These are some helpful tips that will assist you in getting your home ready for the Spring season. Keeping up with these general maintenance tasks will put you ahead of the rest especially if you are planning to sell your home.
Call (562) 270-1775 Today or Contact Us <a href="https://www.orianashea.com/contact/" data-uw-rm-brl="false" aria-label="Call (562) 270-1775 Today or Contact Us HERE" uw-rm-vague-link-id="https://www.orianashea.com/contact/$here" data-uw-rm-vglnk="">HERE</a>!
<br /><br />2022-06-20T11:19:00-07:002022-12-28T13:41:57-07:00Oriana Sheatag:orianashea.com,2012-09-20:17880A Day In A Long Beach Park Anyone?<br /><img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/2461/image/El_Dorado.jpg" /><br />
Long Beach has some great parks for a multitude of interests. Here are a couple to check out . . .
El Dorado Park in East Long Beach
Whether you are looking to go on your morning walk, spend time with the family, or perhaps want to simply get some fresh air El Dorado Park in East Long Beach has a little bit of relaxation and or fun for everyone.
With just a bit over 165 Acres, this amazing widespread park offers plenty of amenities for avid park lovers to explore. Enjoy over 4 miles of paved bicycle paths available to use. Picnic areas & BBQ grills which are perfect for a family get together (with more than enough space to social distance), alongside two fishing lakes, which are stocked (must have a license if 16+), frisbee golf and a PGA golf course as well as, a Nature Center and so much more!
This park is well known by its local residences, but a hidden gem to those who have yet to explore East Long Beach. Surrounded by lush mature trees and grassy areas that are breathtaking for anyone who appreciates nature. With that said, who is ready to go to the park?
Lincoln Park Is Open To The Public
Have you heard about Long Beach’s Oldest Park? Lincoln Park formerly known as Pacific Park was reopened to the city of Long Beach as of 02/11/2022. For those who are not familiar with the now Lincoln Park. It has been closed since 2016 alongside the recent renovations of the new Civic Center.
This $19.5 Million dollar project which was funded through a Private Partnership with supplemental funding by the Port of Long Beach, as well as, the LA County Measure A grant.
Some of the amenities in this state of the art 4 acre park include: Universally Accessible Playground, Dog Park (with small and large dog areas available), Fitness Equipment, Synthetic Turf Sports Field, Half Court Basketball Area, Skate Park, Discovery Zones for Learning & Exploration, Grass Areas for Seating & Play, and Lincoln Penny and Statue.
This park and what it offers to all patrons in the City of Long Beach truly is something to see for yourself. For those that are new to the Long Beach Area, this is a definite must see! Park hours are open from Dawn until 10:00PM.
Long Beach has some great parks for a multitude of interests. Here are a couple to check out . . .
El Dorado Park in East Long Beach
Whether you are looking to go on your morning walk, spend time with the family, or perhaps want to simply get some fresh air El Dorado Park in East Long Beach has a little bit of relaxation and or fun for everyone.
With just a bit over 165 Acres, this amazing widespread park offers plenty of amenities for avid park lovers to explore. Enjoy over 4 miles of paved bicycle paths available to use. Picnic areas & BBQ grills which are perfect for a family get together (with more than enough space to social distance), alongside two fishing lakes, which are stocked (must have a license if 16+), frisbee golf and a PGA golf course as well as, a Nature Center and so much more!
This park is well known by its local residences, but a hidden gem to those who have yet to explore East Long Beach. Surrounded by lush mature trees and grassy areas that are breathtaking for anyone who appreciates nature. With that said, who is ready to go to the park?
Lincoln Park Is Open To The Public
Have you heard about Long Beach’s Oldest Park? Lincoln Park formerly known as Pacific Park was reopened to the city of Long Beach as of 02/11/2022. For those who are not familiar with the now Lincoln Park. It has been closed since 2016 alongside the recent renovations of the new Civic Center.
This $19.5 Million dollar project which was funded through a Private Partnership with supplemental funding by the Port of Long Beach, as well as, the LA County Measure A grant.
Some of the amenities in this state of the art 4 acre park include: Universally Accessible Playground, Dog Park (with small and large dog areas available), Fitness Equipment, Synthetic Turf Sports Field, Half Court Basketball Area, Skate Park, Discovery Zones for Learning & Exploration, Grass Areas for Seating & Play, and Lincoln Penny and Statue.
This park and what it offers to all patrons in the City of Long Beach truly is something to see for yourself. For those that are new to the Long Beach Area, this is a definite must see! Park hours are open from Dawn until 10:00PM.
Looking for a great park, The Oriana Shea Group realtors know Long Beach Cailfornia Parks.
Call (562) 270-1775 Today or Contact Us <a href="https://www.orianashea.com/contact/" data-uw-rm-brl="false" aria-label="Call (562) 270-1775 Today or Contact Us HERE" uw-rm-vague-link-id="https://www.orianashea.com/contact/$here" data-uw-rm-vglnk="">HERE</a>!2022-05-30T10:59:00-07:002022-12-28T13:50:17-07:00Oriana Sheatag:orianashea.com,2012-09-20:16443Top Agent Magazine Features Oriana Shea<img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/2461/image/top-agent-oriana.png" width="undefined" height="undefined" style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" />
Oriana Shea, owner and team leader of The Oriana Shea Group, was recently featured in Top Agent Magazine, Southern California Edition.
Top Agent Magazine is the premier real estate publication featuring the top real estate agents, mortgage professionals, and affiliates in the United States, Canada, Europe, and Australia. It only selects the best real estate agents in the area to be highlighted.
Oriana was chosen because of her innovative marketing approach, attention to detail, high volume of home sales, and passion for both her profession and the community in which she lives and works.
“I am humbled to be featured in Top Agent Magazine among the best of the best,” said Oriana.
With five agents and four full-time staff, The Oriana Shea Group has become well-known in the greater Long Beach, Los Angeles, and Northern Orange County area. Best Long Beach Realtors are staffed at The Oriana Shea Group.
“What we are doing is working and we are impacting people’s lives in a positive way. Our clients are what’s most important. It’s about them. I’m genuinely grateful and honored that I have had this opportunity to help them and be a positive influence for the agents on my team.”
Oriana offers complimentary buyer and seller consultations to map out a strategic plan for her clients and to create a positive experience for them in their real estate journey.
To read Oriana’s feature in Top Agent Magazine, visit: https://topagentmagazine.com/top-real-estate-agents-in-southern-california/
To learn more about Oriana and The Oriana Shea Group, visit www.OrianaShea.com, or call (562) 270-1775.
Call (562) 270-1775 Today or Contact Us <a href="https://www.orianashea.com/contact/" data-uw-rm-brl="false" aria-label="Call (562) 270-1775 Today or Contact Us HERE" uw-rm-vague-link-id="https://www.orianashea.com/contact/$here" data-uw-rm-vglnk="">HERE</a>!2022-02-17T09:38:00-07:002022-12-28T13:52:32-07:00Oriana Sheatag:orianashea.com,2012-09-20:108235 Fun and Green Things To Do This Earth Day!Earth Day is this Sunday, April 22nd, and we have rounded up 5 fun things that you can do this weekend to help honor our big beautiful planet!
Contribute to A Community Garden
There is nothing quite as satisfying as creating a meal with vegetables you grew with your own two hands! If you don’t have space for a home garden you can sign up for the Long Beach Community Garden (FYI there is currently a waiting list). It is a great way to get together with community members, as well as a cost-effective way to get your veggie intake. For more information visit The Long Beach Community Garden’s Website.
Go On A Local Hike
Here in Southern California, we have hundreds of options for beautiful hiking, you could try Malibu Falls, Portuguese Bend, or Turnbull Canyon – just to name a few! Celebrate the Earth by enjoying its bountiful beauty, taking in vistas, climbing mountains, and swimming in the refreshing waters. Just remember to pack out what you pack in – no one likes a litterbug, especially on Earth Day!
Beach Clean Up
Head down to the Long Beach shores with a few friends and trash bags, and start cleaning. It is amazing how much trash accumulates on our beaches.
Earth Day DIY Project
If you own your own home, this weekend is a great time to do an Energy Efficient Audit. Can you switch out light bulbs? Or maybe you can improve your home’s insulation? Or perhaps consider sealing your windows to help them be more energy efficient.
Make An Earth Day Resolution
Linguine With Asparagus Pesto from The New York Times
Is there something not so Earth-friendly that you can remove from your everyday life or replace it with a more sustainable option? For example, replace plastic straws with stainless steel ones or opt to go vegetarian for 1 or 2 days a week. You could try one of these delicious vegetarian recipes from The New York Times. Little changes like this can make a huge impact on the Environment.<br />
Call (562) 270-1775 Today or Contact Us <a href="https://www.orianashea.com/contact/" data-uw-rm-brl="false" aria-label="Call (562) 270-1775 Today or Contact Us HERE" uw-rm-vague-link-id="https://www.orianashea.com/contact/$here" data-uw-rm-vglnk="">HERE</a>!
2021-04-20T14:07:00-07:002022-12-28T15:24:14-07:00Oriana Sheatag:orianashea.com,2012-09-20:10739The COVID-19 Outbreak Is Not a Housing Crisis Here Are 5 Reasons WhyIn the midst of uncertainty, such as the circumstance we are all in right now with the COVID-19 situation, perhaps the best thing we can do to facilitate our feelings of anxiety is to arm ourselves with facts and data, not give into the fear. Revisiting past experiences by reviewing historical patterns and understanding the peaks and valleys of what’s come before us is one of the many ways we can confidently evaluate any situation. With worries of a worldwide downturn on everybody’s minds today, it’s imperative to investigate what has happened throughout the years and how COVID-19 outbreak is not a housing crisis.
The Market Today Is Vastly Different From 2008
We all remember 2008, but please understand that today’s market conditions are far from the same as it was then, which was a key factor that triggered the recession. From easy-to-access mortgages to skyrocketing home price appreciation, a surplus of inventory, excessive equity-tapping, and more—we’re not where we were 12 years ago. None of those factors are in play today. Master dataset exhibits this is an impermanent occasion in time, not a breakdown of the financial industry. It is a drop that will bounce back rapidly, an obvious distinction to the crash of 2008.
Inventory And Interest Rates Are Low And Everyone Needs A Home
Although the Coronavirus is everything but normal, low inventory and low mortgage rates have set the stage for a highly competitive homebuying season. Investors will also be looking to position themselves in high demand areas that had become too expensive during this latest upward and strong cycle.
Current Sellers Are In A Better Position Than Before
COVID-19 may put a temporary damper on demand, which would be great for buyers in competitive markets who need to buy. So don’t expect prices to decline drastically, but instead a slow down in the rate at which prices rise. As sellers take properties out of the market, it will balance supply and demand. In addition, most homeowners are under leveraged and have equity in their properties this time around with strong possibilities to refinance.
A Recession Does Not Equal A Housing Crisis
Take a look at the past five recessions in U.S. history. Home values actually appreciated in three of them. It is true that they sank by almost 20% during the last recession, but as we’ve identified above, 2008 presented different circumstances. In the four previous recessions, home values depreciated only once (by less than 2%). In the other three, residential real estate values increased by 3.5%, 6.1%, and 6.6%.
We Can Be Confident About What We Know
We can be certain that, while we don’t know about the specific effect the virus will have on the housing market, we do realize that housing isn’t the driver. The reasons we move—marriage, children, job changes, retirement, etc.—are steadfast parts of life. Buyers continue to be out looking for a home like yours. Sellers continue to list their homes and make plans to move for a variety of reasons depending on their current needs. Serious buyers and sellers are still out there and need to move. Our team made the necessary pivots early on and we continue serving our client’s needs by implementing social distancing and safe health protocols in place for meeting with clients and selling their homes.
BOTTOM LINE
Concerns about a recession are real, but not a crisis in the housing market. If you have questions about what it means for your family’s home buying or selling plans, call us at The Oriana Shea Group to discuss your needs today. The best time to buy or sell a home is when you have less competition, not more. So don’t wait. (562) 270-1775.
Call (562) 270-1775 Today or Contact Us HERE!2020-09-27T11:05:00-07:002022-12-28T12:53:14-07:00Oriana Sheatag:orianashea.com,2012-09-20:10740How Is COVID-19 Really Affecting The Housing Market And What To ConsiderHistoric times are upon us as the Coronavirus has spread around the world creating so much uncertainty for all of us. Impacting every industry, and real estate is no exception. Now, the big question is “how?” How is COVID-19 impacting our market and industry? We’re here to update you on how the Coronavirus and the “Safer At Home” act are affecting the greater Long Beach market and Southern California in general, as well as offer some industry insight during this rapidly changing situation. Boots on the ground, here is what we are seeing and experiencing.
The Local Housing Market
While many sellers’ first impulse is to pull their listings from the MLS, either withdrawing them temporarily or canceling them completely, here is something to consider. There have been 82 homes canceled, withdrawn, or put on hold since March 1st in Long Beach alone. We are seeing the majority of these in higher price points. We’ve also seen a number of closings in the past two weeks as well, and fewer sellers are listing their homes during this time of uncertainty.
Our team closed two escrows last Friday and opened three new escrows. Why are we still busy? This has created an even tighter level of inventory for buyers who are still actively looking as they need to move and because we are continuing to be proactive. As of this writing, there are 361 active single family homes and condos in Long Beach. Before the pandemic took hold in the United States, that number hovered in the mid-400 range.
Active, motivated buyers are still looking, requesting showings and submitting offers, thanks in part to record low interest rates. Seasoned buyers who are locked into their rates from earlier this year are trying to solidify a home in order to benefit from the dip; while new buyers may be finding that interest rates have increased slightly from two weeks ago. Mortgage lenders report to us that rates are fluctuating not just daily, but sometimes hourly. It’s imperative, more than ever, that buyers have all necessary documents in the hands of their mortgage broker. Many listing agents and sellers are working together to allow buyers and their agents to see their homes safely utilizing technology. Home inspectors are still working as are mortgage lenders. We are simply finding innovative ways to navigate the home sale process.
There have been 190 homes in Long Beach that have gone into escrow since the beginning of March, ranging from a median list price of $619,000 to a high of $1,849,000. Some of these homes are still receiving multiple offers, which we were seeing a lot of before the pandemic crisis. At this point we cannot surmise how this crisis is going to affect sales prices. We will have a greater understanding of how our median home price has fared during this historical time once the homes currently in escrow close. What we do know: this may be an excellent time to seek out a listing that has been on the market for a while. Sellers who are serious in wanting to move on may be more motivated than ever to make a deal happen.
We are also seeing several new listings come on the market with a healthy number of showing requests and interest. We are recommending to our clients that if they are serious about selling their home it should be priced competitively and as marketable as possible because a great first impression online is very important. Our office has received several calls from buyers who are looking immediately to move to Long Beach from other areas; we believe this trend will continue, and will help keep the housing prices stable. In the meantime, many of these future buyers are seeking out short term rentals, so we’ve seen a tightening of that market as well.
Innovative Ways of Doing Business
The California Association of Realtors has mandated that we cannot hold broker tours, and that we should cease all open houses and showings as well. Now more than ever we are enlisting our technological tools to offer virtual tours of our listings as well as conduct showings and appointments via FaceTime and Zoom. In person showings are on hold for the time being, but we are finding ways to allow buyers to tour these listings virtually and effectively. We are committed to staying in front of this and finding solutions to navigate the obstacles we are all facing. I’m happy to report that it’s working as we received two offers on one of our listings this week alone.
Although it’s reasonable to be concerned about how restrictions will impede the sales process, it doesn’t mean home prices will nosedive like they did 10 years ago. There is currently a severe housing shortage and according to Realtor.com’s chief economist, there are many more eager buyers than reasonably priced properties for sale.
Reasons to Sell Right Now:
Limited inventory of homes
Low interest rates will keep serious buyers on the market
If you have a good house that is priced right, you can sell it
Now more than ever people have the time to look at homes online
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Pro tip: If you were planning to sell your home, use this extra time at home to start preparing it for sale. Remember, a great first impression is so important. Find tips on prepping your home for sale here.
The truth is, this is an unprecedented time for all of us. Our team at The Oriana Shea Group understands the nuances and we are here to help you make the best decision for you and your family. Everyone on our team is working remotely and safely from our homes. We are still meeting with new clients via Skype, Zoom and FaceTime, taking listings and coordinating showings for buyers safely and responsibly. Our lenders and inspectors are also still working. Please stay connected, and let us know how we can help you right now. We will get through this together, and come out stronger for it.2020-09-26T11:06:00-07:002022-12-28T12:54:58-07:00Oriana Sheatag:orianashea.com,2012-09-20:10741Long Beach Ranked 10th Most Walkable City In The Nation<img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/2461/image/long_beach_harbour.jpg" width="895" height="597" alt="long_beach_harbour" />
Long Beach is infused with great neighborhoods that make it an incredible city to live in. It’s filled with culture, great restaurants, shopping, and craft breweries. It has a laid back vibe that rivals any Southern California beach town. We love Long Beach for so many reasons and ranking the 10th most walkable city in the nation tops the list!
Long Beach has lots of neighborhoods with various personalities… It’s quirky, diverse, comfortable, and coastal. It’s vibe can’t be pigeonholed and its location is prime. If you want to go to the beach or a craft coffee shop, Long Beach has it. A rooftop lounge, got it. A quiet, suburban home or downtown urban loft, Long Beach has something for everyone!
These neighborhoods all contribute to Long Beach’s great walkability, which boasts an overall walk score of 72. According to Walk Score’s report, this makes Long Beach the second most walkable city in California behind San Francisco — making it the most walkable city in Southern California!
Check out some of Long Beach’s most walkable neighborhoods below:
Downtown Long Beach (92)
Belmont Shore (88)
Belmont Heights (85)
Bixby Park (84)
California Heights (73)
Bixby Knolls (71)
As part of the sprawling ecosystem of greater Los Angeles, Long Beach is located about 25 miles south of Los Angeles. It has the second largest port in the country and is home to the classic ocean liner, The Queen Mary, as well as The Aquarium of the Pacific. Long Beach offers good public transportation and is biker friendly — even offering a bike share program!
If you’re looking to buy a home in Long Beach or want to know more about this great city and its neighborhoods, The Oriana Shea Group is here to help! Give us a call at 562.270.1775 or email us here. We can help you find a neighborhood that’s perfect to call “home.”
Call (562) 270-1775 Today or Contact Us <a href="https://www.orianashea.com/contact/" data-uw-rm-brl="false" aria-label="Call (562) 270-1775 Today or Contact Us HERE" uw-rm-vague-link-id="https://www.orianashea.com/contact/$here" data-uw-rm-vglnk="">HERE</a>!2020-09-25T11:07:00-07:002022-12-28T12:56:16-07:00Oriana Sheatag:orianashea.com,2012-09-20:10744California’s Rent Control Bill And What It Means for LandlordsCalifornia Governor Gavin Newsom signed a rent control bill last month that will take effect January 1, 2020, lasting until 2030. Here’s a breakdown of California’s new rent control bill 1482 and what it means for landlords and renters.
7 Points to Understanding California’s Rent Control Bill:
The essence of the rent control bill will limit annual rent increases to 5% plus the cost of inflation — AKA the percent change in the cost of living OR 10%, whichever is lower.
The new cap will retroactively apply to any increases made this year since March 15, 2019. So the new rent in 2020 will be the rent as of March 15, 2019 plus the max allowed increase. This is to prevent landlords from jacking up the rent before the new law takes effect.
The measure does not affect rent limits in local jurisdictions with existing rent-control laws, ie. Los Angeles, Santa Monica, Culver City, Gardena, Palm Springs and more. Their existing laws will reign. However, cities like Long Beach and Lakewood that don’t have rent control will fall under the new state law.
Owners who share a home with their tenants OR owner-occupied duplexes are exempt from the caps.
Age is more than a number on this one. The new rent control bill affects all apartments that are at least 15 YEARS OLD. It doesn’t apply to housing built within the last 15 years. This provision is to encourage new housing developments that California desperately needs. Houses and condos owned by corporations or REITs, that are also 15 years old or older are also subject to the rent caps.
Just-cause eviction protections. Tenants who have lived in their rental for at least a year and are following the terms of their lease can only be evicted if the owner plans to move in, demolish or renovate the unit, or cease renting it at all.
The percentage change in the cost of living is measured from April 1 of the prior year to April 1 of the current year in the regional Consumer Price Index for the region where the property is located. If a regional index isn’t available, the California Price Index shall apply.
So Why Now?
According to <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/california-governor-signs-statewide-rent-control-law-2019-10-08">Market Watch</a> California’s rent control bill was designed to combat the state’s housing crisis and protect tenants from insanely high rent hikes that could leave them homeless. As the most populated state in the country, California has 17 million renters. But with all the exceptions, California’s new law will apply to about 8 million of those renters.
Like any new bill there are pros and cons and we’re here to help you understand what the new law means for you and your rental property. With variances from city to city due to existing rent control this new statewide law might not affect you. On the other hand, it might make you curious about investment opportunities in other states and we’re here to help you understand your options and discuss a 1031 Exchange.
Are you a renter? If you feel like you are already paying too much in rent you’re not alone. Let us help you explore if what you’re paying could translate into owning a home of your own! Give us a call at The Oriana Shea Group 562.270.1775 or <a href="https://www.orianashea.com/contact-us/">contact us here</a>.
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About The Oriana Shea Group
At The Oriana Shea Group, you will find a wide variety of useful tools and resources designed to help you with the home-buying and selling process. From information on the region’s different communities to a free comparative market analysis on your home, it’s all available here on our website. Our full-time agents serve <a href="https://www.orianashea.com/long-beach/">Long Beach</a>, <a href="https://www.orianashea.com/seal-beach/">Seal Beach</a>, <a href="https://www.orianashea.com/lakewood/">Lakewood</a>, <a href="https://www.orianashea.com/rossmoor/">Rossmoor</a>, <a href="https://www.orianashea.com/los-alamitos/">Los Alamitos</a>, <a href="https://www.orianashea.com/huntington-beach/">Huntington Beach</a> and the surrounding areas. The Oriana Shea Group also specializes in <a href="http://www.probatehomesales.com/">Trust and Probate Sales.</a>2020-09-22T11:13:00-07:002022-12-28T15:41:29-07:00Oriana Sheatag:orianashea.com,2012-09-20:10746Long Beach’s Highly Anticipated Retail Center Is Open!<img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/2461/image/2nd_and_PCH.jpg" width="1030" height="932" alt="2nd and PCH" title="2nd and PCH in Long Beach California" />
After nearly 10 years of work, Long Beach Retail Center <a href="https://2ndandpch.com/">2ND & PCH</a> is Open! The highly anticipated retail center was formerly home to the SeaPort Marina Hotel. Which believe it or not was a high-end hostelry in its heyday. This contemporary retail and restaurant destination is located at the southeast corner of 2nd St. and Pacific Coast Highway in Long Beach.
The gorgeous architecture exudes a casual yet refined resort-style character. A fun and whimsical landscape with beautiful marina views invites guests to enjoy the laid-back SoCal lifestyle. Quite the feat for property owner Ray Lin who’s waited a quarter-century for the rebirth of his land, according to the Press Telegram.
With the convenience of online shopping, this retail center set out to make a statement. Jean Paul Wardy, the developer of 2ND & PCH, knew that it had to be a destination that offers something special. Anchored by Whole Foods, other popular retail tenants include:
Warby Parker
Free People
lululemon
Urban Outfitters
Peloton
Athleta
Gorjana
Sephora and more!
Eateries like Shake Shack, The Bungalow, Urban Plates, Hungry Angelina, and SO many more are sure to delight the Long Beach community.
As Long Beach locals, we are very excited about this waterfront retail center and the positive impact it stands to have on our community! Not all the shops and eateries are open just yet, however more will continue to open their doors in the coming months and into 2020. You can find the full list of tenants — opening and coming soon — at <a href="https://2ndandpch.com/events/">2ND & PCH’s official website.</a>
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About The Oriana Shea Group
At The Oriana Shea Group, you will find a wide variety of useful tools and resources designed to help you with the home-buying and selling process. From information on the region’s different communities to a free comparative market analysis on your home, it’s all available here on our website. Our full-time agents serve Long Beach, Seal Beach, Lakewood, Rossmoor, Los Alamitos, Huntington Beach and the surrounding areas. The Oriana Shea Group also specializes in Trust and Probate Sales.2020-09-20T11:16:00-07:002022-12-28T18:02:02-07:00Oriana Sheatag:orianashea.com,2012-09-20:10748Historical Society of Long Beach Presents The 24th Annual Historical Cemetery TourLong Beach’s annual cemetery tour is back! The Historical Society of Long Beach has hosted a living history tour at its two oldest cemeteries since 1995. The Long Beach Municipal Cemetery and it’s neighbor, Sunnyside Cemetery, are “home” to more than 20,000 past residents of the area. These historical cemeteries are located at 1095 and 1151 E. Willow Street between Orange and California Avenues. And the stories they contain are countless.
The tour is family-friendly and features graveside performances. Actors portray a living history of the life and demise of those lying in rest. Each year the cemetery tour showcases a variety of stories. The Historical Society of Long Beach assures there is nothing scary about the vignettes or location, and it’s appropriate for all ages!
HSLB is featuring 19 performances and attractions. This year the eight performances include:
Two Blocks & 30 Years Apart – The stories of Avalon Pierce, Reverend Henry & Beulah White.
Mrs. Goodnight’s Bad Night – A story of arson, theft, and heartbreak. The story of Louise Goodnight to be told by actor, Linda Midgett.
Votes for Women – The mother-daughter story of Nina Cuthbert Jackson and Carolyn Jackson Miller, who fought for women’s right to vote.
Good Vibrations – Dr. William and Ellen Woodruff used the power of sunlight at their sanitarium to restore healthy vibrations to the human body.
A Really Big Camel – Realtors, attorneys, and city boosters, John and Lulu Munholland found quirky and memorable ways to bring visitors and attention to Long Beach.
A Hotel, Port, & Miss Universe – Glen and Mary Lou Clark knew the right people, went to the right parties, built the Broadlind Hotel (on Broadway and Linden)… and knew all its secrets.
The Tribe of Tahquitz – The Van De Water Family had life figured out until a stalled truck changed everything.
Our Town – Francisca Sanchez and Ramon Hernandez rest on a hill in Sunnyside surrounded by neighbors who literally built Long Beach City, and they are excited to tell their stories!
So head on over for some unique, family fun! The historical cemetery tour takes place Saturday, October 26 from 9am – 3pm, and gates open at 8:30am. For more information and to purchase tickets for this Long Beach event, visit their website here. It’s sure to be a great time for everyone!
More information from HSLB – 24th Annual Historical Cemetery Tour FAQs
“Over the past months, we have all seen media coverage on negotiations between the city and Sunnyside Cemetery. We are gratified by the Long Beach City Council’s unanimous vote on August 20th to accept ownership of the cemetery. With this vote, we feel confident that the significant history of Sunnyside will be preserved for years to come. We look forward to seeing you at our 24th Annual Historic Cemetery Tour and we look forward to the next chapter in Sunnyside’s story!”
About The Oriana Shea Group
At The Oriana Shea Group, you will find a wide variety of useful tools and resources designed to help you with the home-buying and selling process. From information on the region’s different communities to a free comparative market analysis on your home, it’s all available here on our website. Our full-time agents serve Long Beach, Seal Beach, Lakewood, Rossmoor, Los Alamitos, Huntington Beach and the surrounding areas. The Oriana Shea Group also specializes in Trust and Probate Sales.
Call (562) 270-1775 Today or Contact Us <a href="https://www.orianashea.com/contact/" data-uw-rm-brl="false" aria-label="Call (562) 270-1775 Today or Contact Us HERE" uw-rm-vague-link-id="https://www.orianashea.com/contact/$here" data-uw-rm-vglnk="" style="font-family: sans-serif;">HERE</a>!2020-09-19T11:17:00-07:002022-12-28T18:03:51-07:00Oriana Sheatag:orianashea.com,2012-09-20:10827Paying It Forward – Valentine’s Day Edition!Every team member on The Oriana Shea Group is an animal lover, and we all have fur babies of our own! So it seems quite fitting that our first Pay It Forward Project goes to the animals! In honor of Valentine’s Day we will be coordinating a donations drive to help these Fur Babies that need a Home!
The SBACC or Seal Beach Animal Care Center is a no-kill shelter in Seal Beach, CA. These furry friends are in dire need of supplies! Cash and gift cards are always appreciated as well! Most importantly, these cuties are looking for their forever homes!
We will have a donations box in the reception area of our office. If you are unable to drop off your donations and you are local, then we are more than happy to pick them up! Just give us a call!
SBACC Wish List:
Friskies Canned Cat Food
Purina One Sensitive Systems Dry Cat Food
Science Diet Brand Dry Dog food, Adult (1-6 years) Small Bites, and Adult (1-6 yrs) Lg. Bites
Science Diet brand Canned Dog Food, Adult, Chicken Flavor
Pill Pockets
sWheat Scoop Cat Litter
Dog Toys, Especially Ones That Squeak
6′ Nylon Dog Leashes
Cardboard Cat Scratchers
Paper Towels
Ziplock Bags, Quart & Gallon Size
8 oz. Disposable Drinking Cups
45, 39, 33 and 13 Gallon Trash Bags
Bathroom Tissue
6% Chlorine Bleach
Hand Sanitizer
Canon Selphy Photo Paper #KP108IN
Toner Cartridges TN 580
Copy Paper, White & Bright Colors
“White Out” Correction Tape
Pet Supply & Home Improvement Gift Cards
Postage Stamps
The SBACC also have Amazon Wish Lists setup. Which means…you can place the order online & ship it to our office, and do an amazing act of kindness without even leaving your home!
The Dogs’ Wishlist
The Cats’ Wishlist
SBACC General Wishlist
Now For The Fun Part! These Cuties Are Available for Adoption at the SBACC!
Questions about this, Call (562) 270-1775 Today or Contact Us <a href="https://www.orianashea.com/contact/" data-uw-rm-brl="false" aria-label="Call (562) 270-1775 Today or Contact Us HERE" uw-rm-vague-link-id="https://www.orianashea.com/contact/$here" data-uw-rm-vglnk="">HERE</a>!
2020-09-09T14:18:00-07:002022-12-28T18:18:52-07:00Oriana Shea